1、 Supply side maintenance drives exploratory market growth

In mid to late March, with the release of maintenance news for multiple PC devices such as Hainan Huasheng, Shengtong Juyuan, and Dafeng Jiangning, there are positive signs on the supply side of the market. This trend has driven a tentative increase in the spot market, with PC manufacturers increasing their factory quotes by 200-300 yuan/ton. However, as we entered April, the positive effects of the previous period gradually weakened, and spot prices did not continue to rise, leading to a post rise stalemate in the market. In addition, with the low prices of raw materials, some brand prices have even fallen, and market participants are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

2、 Low price operation of raw material bisphenol A has limited support for PC cost

The price of raw material bisphenol A has remained low recently, despite strong support from upstream pure benzene, the performance of both supply and demand has not been satisfactory. In terms of supply, some bisphenol A units will undergo maintenance or load reduction in April, and there are plans to increase production capacity, which may increase production. In terms of demand, due to the poor maintenance of individual PC devices and the demand for epoxy resin terminals, the downstream demand for the two main components of bisphenol A has shrunk. Under the game of supply and demand and cost, it is expected that the price of bisphenol A will still show interval fluctuations in the later stage, with limited cost support for PC.

3、 The operation of PC devices is stabilizing, and the benefits of maintenance are gradually weakening

From the recent dynamics of PC devices in China, most manufacturers have shown stable operation of their devices. As Hainan Huasheng enters the maintenance period, the utilization rate of PC production capacity has decreased, with a month on month decrease of 3.83%, but a year-on-year increase of 10.85%. In addition, the Shengtong Juyuan PC device is also scheduled for maintenance in late April. However, the positive effects brought about by these inspections have been released in advance, and their impact on the market is gradually weakening. Meanwhile, there are rumors in the market that Hengli Petrochemical’s PC plant will be put into operation at the end of the month. If the news is true, it may bring some boost to the PC market.

Recent developments in domestic PC devices

4、 Slow growth in apparent PC consumption and limited demand support

According to statistical data from January to March, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic PC industry has further improved, with a significant year-on-year increase in production. However, there has been a significant decline in net imports, resulting in limited growth in apparent consumption. The profit situation of the domestic PC industry significantly improved in the first quarter, with manufacturers increasing production and equipment running well. However, although downstream consumption has certain positive expectations, the rigid demand for PCs is difficult to become a strong support for driving the market.

5、 The short-term PC market may mainly focus on post inflation consolidation and operation

Based on the above analysis, there is still supply side support in the current PC market, but the pressure on cost and demand cannot be ignored. The low price of raw material bisphenol A has limited support for PC costs; However, downstream consumption growth is slow, making it difficult to provide strong demand support. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, the PC market may mainly focus on post market consolidation and operation